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How can you estimate your favourite team's chances of winning the next FIFA World Cup? To some extent, mathematics and artificial intelligence make this possible. Here is an example from the 2018 tournament.
Predicting the result of a football match from statistics alone is impossible. Yet methods have been developed to refine such predictions. Goals often seem to come down to chance—but might analysing how the match unfolded provide a more reliable way to assess the teams?
A probabilistic model can help a tennis player choose which type of serve to use. Applied to the final of the last Davis Cup, which pitted Belgium against England.
Using 25,000 simulations and the Monte Carlo method, Opta predicts Spain will be 2026 world champion with a 16.1% chance. But this figure illustrates the paradox of 48-team tournaments: even the top favorite has an 84% chance of not winning.
